Thursday Night Football odds, spread, line: Patriots vs. Bills predictions, NFL picks from expert on 16-7 roll

The Buffalo Bills will square off against the AFC East rival New England Patriots in a key Week 13 game on Thursday Night Football, and they will have to do so without defensive star Von Miller. The three-time first-team All-Pro, who was signed as a free agent in the offseason, will miss Thursday’s game because of what he called “lateral meniscus damage” in his right knee. He said he hopes to return before Buffalo’s game next week against the Jets. Miller leads the team and ranks 12th in the league in sacks (eight). On Thursday Night Football, the Bills (8-3) will face a 6-5 Patriots team that has won three of its last four games. 

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook while the over/under for total points scored is 43.5. Before you make any Bills vs. Patriots picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s resident Patriots expert and data scientist, Stephen Oh.

The renowned co-founder of Accuscore, Oh simulates each game 10,000 times using the SportsLine projection model. Last season, he went 97-81-1 on his NFL picks. And he is on an amazing run in games involving the Patriots. Oh is 16-7 with his last 23 against-the-spread picks involving New England.

Now, Oh has zeroed in on Bills vs. Patriots and just locked in his picks and TNF predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Oh’s picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines and trends for Patriots vs. Bills:

  • Patriots vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -3.5
  • Patriots vs. Bills over/under: 43.5 points 
  • Patriots vs. Bills money line: Buffalo -190, New England +160
  • BUF: Bills rank second in the league in scoring offense (28.1 points per game) 
  • NE: Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks (13) 
  • Patriots vs. Bills picks: See picks here

Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen can take advantage of New England’s defense with his legs. The dual-threat quarterback is averaging 6.9 yards per carry this season. Last week, he ran for 78 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Lions. He has run for at least 78 yards in three of his last four games. That bodes well against a Patriots defense that has been gashed by running quarterbacks, allowing 6.3 yards per carry to signal-callers.

In addition, the Bills have a dangerous big-play receiver in Gabe Davis. The third-year receiver is having his best season, averaging 19.7 yards per reception, which leads the NFL. See which team to pick here.

Why the Patriots can cover

New England faces a quarterback who has struggled in the passing game recently. Bills signal-caller Josh Allen, who injured his elbow in Week 9 against the Jets, has had a passer rating of less than 81.0 in four of his last five games. Last week against Detroit, he averaged just 6.0 yards per attempt and earned a passer rating of 80.8.

That bodes well for a Patriots pass defense that has been excellent this season. The defense leads the league in completion percentage allowed (58.4) and ranks third in passer rating allowed (78.8). New England also ranks in the top 10 in yards per attempt allowed (6.72) and interceptions (12). See which team to pick here.

How to make Bills vs. Patriots picks

Now, Oh has broken down Patriots vs. Bills from every angle. He is leaning Over on the point total, and he has discovered a crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Bills vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football? And what critical factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Patriots spread you should jump on, all from the NFL expert who is 16-7 on against-the-spread picks involving New England, and find out.

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