Thursday Night Football odds, spread, line: Patriots vs. Bills predictions, NFL picks by expert on 16-7 run

Two teams from the crowded AFC East will collide when the Buffalo Bills visit the New England Patriots in the Week 13 Thursday Night Football game at Gillette Stadium. The Bills (8-3) are tied for the lead in the division with the Dolphins (8-3). They are one game ahead of the Jets (7-4) and two games ahead of the Patriots (6-5). Buffalo is coming off a 28-25 win at Detroit on Thanksgiving, while New England enters Thursday off a 33-26 loss at Minnesota that ended a three-game winning streak. 

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a four-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook while the over/under for total points scored is 43.5. Before you make any Bills vs. Patriots picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s resident Patriots expert and data scientist, Stephen Oh.

The renowned co-founder of Accuscore, Oh simulates each game 10,000 times using the SportsLine projection model. Last season, he went 97-81-1 on his NFL picks. And he is on an amazing run in games involving the Patriots. Oh is 16-7 with his last 23 against-the-spread picks involving New England.

Now, Oh has zeroed in on Bills vs. Patriots and just locked in his picks and TNF predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Oh’s picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines and trends for Patriots vs. Bills:

  • Patriots vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -4
  • Patriots vs. Bills over/under: 43.5 points 
  • Patriots vs. Bills money line: Buffalo -205, New England +170 
  • BUF: Bills rank second in the league in scoring offense (28.1 points per game) 
  • NE: Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks (13) 
  • Patriots vs. Bills picks: See picks here

Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Why the Bills can cover

Josh Allen has had success against New England recently. The 26-year-old quarterback has 300 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in three of his last four games against the Patriots. Nobody else has done that more than once against a Bill Belichick-coached team. The only game in which Allen didn’t reach those totals came in Buffalo last season with severe winds.

In addition, the Bills have had success against New England recently. Buffalo has won the last two meetings against the Patriots and four of the last five. The Bills also have won the last two games at Gillette. See which team to pick here.

Why the Patriots can cover

New England has the defense to slow Buffalo. The Patriots lead the league in defensive EPA per game (8.30) and also are one of the best defenses in the red zone. Opponents are scoring touchdowns on just 51.5% of red zone trips. Buffalo struggles in the red zone, scoring on just 76.7% of trips, which is the third worst in the league.

In addition, New England faces a Bills team that will be without star pass rusher Von Miller. Miller is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Miller leads the team and ranks 12th in the league in sacks (eight). See which team to pick here.

How to make Bills vs. Patriots picks

Now, Oh has broken down Patriots vs. Bills from every angle. He is leaning Over on the point total, and he has discovered a crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Bills vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football? And what critical factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Patriots spread you should jump on, all from the NFL expert who is 16-7 on against-the-spread picks involving New England, and find out.

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