Thursday Night Football odds, spread, line: Patriots vs. Bills predictions, NFL picks by expert on 16-7 roll

The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will meet for the first time this season when the two AFC East rivals collide in a key Week 13 game on Thursday Night Football at Gillette Stadium. The last time these teams met came in the wild card round of last season’s playoffs, with the Bills blowing out the Patriots, 47-17. They will meet again in the 2022 regular-season finale in Week 18. The Bills (8-3) are tied for the lead in the division with the Dolphins, two games ahead of the Patriots (6-5).

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook while the over/under for total points scored is 43.5. Before you make any Bills vs. Patriots picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s resident Patriots expert and data scientist, Stephen Oh.

The renowned co-founder of Accuscore, Oh simulates each game 10,000 times using the SportsLine projection model. Last season, he went 97-81-1 on his NFL picks. And he is on an amazing run in games involving the Patriots. Oh is 16-7 with his last 23 against-the-spread picks involving New England.

Now, Oh has zeroed in on Bills vs. Patriots and just locked in his picks and TNF predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Oh’s picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines and trends for Patriots vs. Bills:

  • Patriots vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -3.5
  • Patriots vs. Bills over/under: 43.5 points 
  • Patriots vs. Bills money line: Buffalo -190, New England +160
  • BUF: Bills rank second in the league in scoring offense (28.1 points per game) 
  • NE: Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks (13) 
  • Patriots vs. Bills picks: See picks here

Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo has one of the top offenses in the league. Led by quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills rank second in total offense (415.9 yards per game) and scoring offense (28.1 points per game). Over their last three games, they have averaged 29.7 points per contest.

In addition, Buffalo has a playmaker in the secondary, Jordan Poyer. An All-Pro last season when he had five interceptions and three sacks, Poyer is tied for third in the league in interceptions (four) this year despite playing in just six games. In Week 11, he returned from an elbow injury and helped the Bills to back-to-back victories. See which team to pick here.

Why the Patriots can cover

New England has the defense to slow Buffalo. The Patriots lead the league in defensive EPA per game (8.30) and also are one of the best defenses in the red zone. Opponents are scoring touchdowns on just 51.5% of red zone trips. Buffalo struggles in the red zone, scoring on just 76.7% of trips, which is the third worst in the league.

In addition, New England faces a Bills team that will be without star pass rusher Von Miller. Miller is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Miller leads the team and ranks 12th in the league in sacks (eight). See which team to pick here.

How to make Bills vs. Patriots picks

Now, Oh has broken down Patriots vs. Bills from every angle. He is leaning Over on the point total, and he has discovered a crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Bills vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football? And what critical factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Patriots spread you should jump on, all from the NFL expert who is 16-7 on against-the-spread picks involving New England, and find out.

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