NFL

NFL Week 13 early odds: Giants home ‘dogs vs. Commanders; Browns favored in Deshaun Watson’s return

The turkey has been cooked, leftovers have been eaten and the Thanksgiving mile marker is in the rearview mirror in the NFL. Week 12 had all the fixings for one of the better slates of the year. During the Thanksgiving triple header, each game came down the end and even saw some money exchange hands late with the Giants mounting a last-second cover — and hitting the over — with a garbage time touchdown. On Sunday, we had several games go down the wire and the playoff picture is getting even crisper as we barrel down the stretch. 

As we wait for Week 12 to officially come to a close with the Steelers and Colts squaring off on Monday night, let’s take our first glimpse of all the Week 13 matchups and get our impression of the opening lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers see coming out on top

Note: The Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers are on the bye in Week 13

Week 13 early odds

(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook, all games on Sunday unless noted)

Latest Odds:

Buffalo Bills
-5.5

Opening line: Bills -5.5

Buffalo remains a 5.5-point road favorite following Week 12. Both of these AFC East rivals played on Thanksgiving and came out on opposite ends of the scoreboard. The Bills were able to edge out the Lions, albeit without covering. Meanwhile, the Patriots fell to the Vikings in Minnesota, dropping them to 6-5. Bill Belichick’s team is currently on the outside looking in on the playoffs, so Thursday’s matchup has plenty hanging in the balance. Buffalo also has plenty of skin in this matchup as it is looking to keep pace with the Dolphins for the division lead. While the Patriots may be behind the Bills in the actual standings, they have been a better bet this season, owning a 6-4-1 ATS record. As a road favorite this season, Buffalo is 2-3-1 ATS. They’re also 3-0-1 ATS in their last four trips to New England. 

Steelers (3-7) at Falcons (5-7)

Latest Odds:

Atlanta Falcons
-1.5

Opening line: Falcons -1

The Falcons are now a 1.5-point favorite as they gear up to host Pittsburgh, but this line could see more movement following the Steelers’ matchup with the Colts on Monday night. Atlanta dropped its Week 12 matchup with the Commanders and had a particularly tough time slowing down the Washington backfield. Now, they’ll face a Steelers backfield headlined by Najee Harris, who has started to come on strong heading into Monday. At home, the Falcons have been a solid team to back as they own a 4-2 ATS record at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. That said, this Atlanta team has gone cold and is 1-5 ATS over the last six games. 

Latest Odds:

Baltimore Ravens
-8

Opening line: Ravens -6.5

Baltimore has since moved to a 7.5-point favorite, crossing two key numbers. The Ravens continue to struggle closing games late and allowed the Jaguars to pull out a last-second victory in Jacksonville on Sunday, dropping them to 7-4 on the year. What likely moved this line over a touchdown, however, is the continued issues in Denver. They just fell to the Carolina Panthers and the offense managed just 10 points in the loss. There have also been some cracks in the Broncos’ foundation showing as Mike Purcell was seen screaming at Russell Wilson on the sideline. Denver is 3-8 ATS on the season, which is the second-worst mark in the NFL. That said, the Ravens are 0-4-1 ATS at home entering Week 13. 

Latest Odds:

Green Bay Packers
-2

Opening line: Packers -2.5

Green Bay is now a 3.5-point favorite, but there is plenty of uncertainty with both of these NFC North clubs. Justin Fields missed Week 12 due to a shoulder injury, so his status seems to be up in the air for this matchup as well. With the Packers, Aaron Rodgers left Sunday’s loss to the Eagles with an oblique injury, so Jordan Love was forced to play the fourth quarter and would get the start if Rodgers is unable to play Sunday. Neither one of these teams has been a strong bet this year as the Packers are 4-8 ATS while Chicago is 4-7-1 ATS. Over their last 30 matchups, it’s been Green Bay who has enjoyed the most success as they are 23-7 ATS. They have struggled more recently, however, and are 2-4 ATS on the road this season.  

Jaguars (4-7) at Lions (4-7)

Latest Odds:

Detroit Lions
-1.5

Opening line: PICK

This remains a pick’em coming out of Week 12 and could be a sneaky enjoyable matchup with these two teams playing well as of late. Jacksonville rallied to beat the Ravens in the final seconds of their matchup on Sunday and the Lions covered against Buffalo on Thanksgiving, keeping that game within a field goal. Arguably the biggest storyline in this game is the emergence of Trevor Lawrence. Over his last three games, the former No. 1 overall pick has a 116.1 passer rating, is completing 76.8% of his passes, and averaging 271.7 passing yards per game. He also has six touchdowns and zero interceptions over that stretch. He’ll need to keep playing at that high level if Jacksonville wants to pull out the win on Sunday. On the road, the Jags are 1-4 ATS. As for the Lions, they are 4-2 ATS at home.

Latest Odds:

Cleveland Browns
-7

Opening line: Browns -5

Cleveland is now a full touchdown favorite as they are set to get Deshaun Watson back after the quarterback served his 11-game suspension. He’ll now make his Browns debut against his former Texans team. Without Watson, the Browns have been able to largely stay afloat and just took down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 12 as an underdog. As for the Texans, they elected to start Kyle Allen at quarterback over Davis Mills, but it didn’t make much difference against Miami, who blew them out 30-15 in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score indicates. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six games. 

Jets (7-4) at Vikings (9-2)

Latest Odds:

Minnesota Vikings
-3

Opening line: Vikings -3

Minnesota has held as a field goal favorite, despite moving to 9-2 on the year with a win over the Patriots on Thanksgiving. What may have prevented the Vikings from crossing over the field-goal hurdle is the impressive performance by Jets quarterback Mike White. Starting in place for the benched Zach Wilson, White lit up the Bears defense for 315 yards and three touchdowns while leading New York to the 31-10 victory. White completed throws to 10 different pass catchers and drastically helped the Jets on third down, which had been an area of weakness this season. If White can keep that level of play up, New York will be a live ‘dog in Minnesota, where the Vikings are 3-3 ATS on the season. 

Commanders (7-5) at Giants (7-4)

Latest Odds:

Washington Commanders
-1.5

Opening line: Commanders -1.5

Washington opened as a 1.5-point favorite on the road against New York and that has held throughout the events of Week 12. The Commanders deployed a strong backfield attack and made a clutch turnover on defense to beat the Falcons on Sunday, giving them their sixth win in their last seven games. As for the Giants, they were able to get a late cover against Dallas but did drop to 7-4 on the year. This is the first matchup of the season between these NFC East rivals and could have significant implications for the overall playoff picture. Both of these teams would be in the postseason if the season ended today. Each has also been a great bet as of late. The Commanders are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games while New York is 6-2 ATS over its last eight. In their last seven meetings, the Giants are 5-2 ATS. 

Titans (7-4) at Eagles (10-1)

Latest Odds:

Philadelphia Eagles
-5.5

Opening line: Eagles -6.5

Philadelphia had one of its signature wins on Sunday night against the Packers, where they rushed for 363 yards, the second-most in franchise history. The victory also moved the Eagles to 10-1 as they continue to have a hold on the top seed in the conference. Meanwhile, the Titans couldn’t edge out the Bengals and dropped to 7-4 on the year, but still have a commanding lead in the AFC South. Tennessee has been one of the best teams to bet on this season as their 8-3 ATS record is tied for the league lead. They are also covering 83.3% of their road games this season (tied for best in the NFL). However, the Eagles have been fantastic at home and are league-best 5-1 ATS. 

Latest Odds:

Seattle Seahawks
-5

Opening line: Seahawks -3

Seattle is now a 4.5-point favorite over a banged-up Rams team that just fell to the Chiefs with Bryce Perkins under center. Matthew Stafford is still in concussion protocol, so his status for this game is up in the air. Even if he does return, he’ll be without Allen Robinson, who will miss the rest of the season with a foot injury. The L.A. passing attack was already without Cooper Kupp (ankle). Meanwhile, the Seahawks had no answer for Josh Jacobs on Sunday as the Raiders back rushed for 229 yards, including an 86-yard game-winning gallup for a touchdown in overtime. They should be able to bounce back this weekend against the Rams, however, as they are 1-5 ATS at home this season. 

Dolphins (8-3) at 49ers (7-4)

Latest Odds:

San Francisco 49ers
-3.5

Opening line: 49ers -4.5

San Francisco is now a 3.5-point home favorite against the Dolphins, who are led by former Niners OC Mike McDaniel. Miami is fresh off a demolition of the Texans where the starters didn’t even play much of the second half. Meanwhile, the 49ers also found themselves in the win column as their defense shut out the Saints. Both of these teams are 6-5 ATS on the season, but Miami is 2-3 ATS on the road coming into this matchup. The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.

Chiefs (9-2) at Bengals (7-4)

Latest Odds:

Kansas City Chiefs
-3

Opening line: Chiefs -3

The Chiefs sit as the AFC’s No. 1 seed at the moment after a win over the Rams that pushed them to 9-2 on the year. Now, they’ll get a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship as they’ll head to Cincinnati to face the Bengals, who have won five of their last six and are nipping on the heels of the Ravens for first place in the AFC North. Joe Burrow and company have covered 75% of their home games this season, which is the second-best percentage in the NFL. As a road favorite this year, K.C. is 2-2 ATS. 

Chargers (6-5) at Raiders (4-7)

Latest Odds:

Los Angeles Chargers
-2.5

Opening line: Chargers -3

This line has since dipped below the key field goal number to Chargers -2.5. Both of these AFC West clubs were able to pull out late wins on Sunday. Las Vegas rode Josh Jacobs to victory as the back had a dominating day on the ground, while the Chargers scored a touchdown with 15 seconds left in regulation and went for two to put away the Cardinals. L.A. is now 7-4 ATS on the season, while the Raiders are 5-6 ATS. The Chargers are tied for the best road ATS record in the league at 5-1 and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Las Vegas.

Colts (4-6-1) at Cowboys (8-3)

Latest Odds:

Dallas Cowboys
-9.5

Opening line: Cowboys -9.5

There may be more movement with this line depending on what happens on Monday night between the Colts and Steelers. That said, Dallas is already a sizable 9.5-point favorite over Indy as we gear up for Sunday night. The Cowboys played on Thanksgiving, so they’ll have a noticeable rest advantage over the Colts, who’ll be working on a short week. Mike McCarthy’s team is 7-4 ATS on the year, which includes a 4-2 ATS mark at home. On the road, Indy is 2-4 ATS. 

Saints (4-8) at Buccaneers (5-6), Monday

Latest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-5.5

Opening line: Buccaneers -6.5

Tampa Bay has since dipped to a 6-point favorite over New Orleans in what is a pivotal division game on Monday. After dropping their Week 12 matchup to the Browns, the Bucs sit at a vulnerable 5-6 on the year. While that’s good for first place in the NFC South, each team is only two games behind in the loss column so things could flip on a dime in short order. What we do know is that one steak will come to a close in this matchup as the Saints are 0-5 ATS on the road this season while the Bucs are 0-4-1 ATS at home. The Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings against the Bucs, which includes a 4-0 ATS record in their last four trips to Raymond James Stadium.



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