NFL Week 11 early odds: Packers ride 9-1 ATS record into Minnesota; Bucs double-digit favorites vs. Giants

Week 10 in the NFL is nearly in the rearview mirror as we’re merely waiting to see what will unfold between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers when they go head-to-head in an NFC West duel on Monday night. As for what we’ve seen so far in Week 10, the NFL continues to keep us on our toes with a number of upsets. The Washington Football Team was able to stun the Buccaneers, Miami took down Baltimore on Thursday night and the Lions didn’t a lose a game! However, they didn’t win one either as they tied the Pittsburgh Steelers. Nevertheless, you always need to expect the unexpected in the NFL it seems. 

While we wait for the Rams and 49ers to wrap up Week 10 with this “Monday Night Football” matchup, now seems like as good of a time as to begin our research into Week 11 and see what the opening lines are for every game across the upcoming slate. 

Week 11 early odds

(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook, all games on Sunday unless noted)

Opening line: Patriots -3.5 

This line has already jumped considerably to Patriots -6 coming out of Sunday as New England extended its winning streak to four games in convincing fashion against the Browns winning 45-7. Meanwhile, the Falcons were on the opposite end of a blowout in Week 10 as they fell to the Cowboys, 43-3, and now own one of the worst point differentials in the NFL at -9.4 for the season. Bill Belichick’s team has not only won four straight, but they are 4-0 ATS over this run and own an ATS+/- of +7.8 on the season, which is the best mark in the NFL. 

Opening line: Eagles -1

The Eagles put together one of their more impressive games of the season in their Week 10 victory in Denver against the Broncos. Not only did they continue to run the ball effectively (214 yards on 5.4 yards per carry), but Jalen Hurts had one of his better days as a passer. He completed 16 of his 23 throws for 178 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. Philly will now head home to face a New Orleans team that fell to Tennessee, 23-21. One of the main storylines as it relates to this game — and possible line movement — will be the status of running back Alvin Kamara, who missed last week’s game against the Titans. If he’s able to suit up, that certainly raises the ceiling for this New Orleans offense. The Saints are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight-up loss, while the Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six as a home favorite.  

Opening line: Dolphins -2.5

This number has since moved the Dolphins to a field goal favorite against New York as the Mike White experience seems to be nearing its end. The Jets backup quarterback again got the start in Week 10 as rookie Zach Wilson continues to recover from a knee injury and threw four interceptions in a blowout loss to the Bills. There was a report pregame that if White played well, he could earn another start, but now all eyes will seemingly be back on Wilson if he’s healthy enough. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are well-rested after playing on Thursday where they stunned the Ravens en route to their third win of the season. Miami’s defense was dominant for the bulk of that game and was able to apply pressure on Lamar Jackson. If they bring that same energy to MetLife Stadium, it could be another long day for whoever is under center for New York. However, Miami has struggled as a road favorite recently, owning a 1-5 ATS mark in their last six.  

Washington (3-6) at Panthers (5-5)

Opening line: Panthers -2.5 

It is rather surprising that this number has bumped up Panthers -3 even after Washington was able to upset the Buccaneers in Week 10. Of course, that could partially be due to Washington pass rusher Chase Young suffering a serious knee injury that is feared to have ended his season. If that’s the case, Washington will be down arguably its best defensive player, which does give Carolina an edge. The Panthers also were able to drop 34 points against a hobbled Cardinals team during a game where Cam Newton made his return with two touchdowns. After playing a limited role in Week 10, he’s expected to start in Week 11. This season, Washington has not fared well as an underdog, going 1-5 ATS in their last six. That said, Carolina has not done much better as a home favorite as they own a 1-6 ATS mark over their last seven. 

Colts (5-5) at Bills (6-3)

Opening line: Bills -6.5

One of the biggest games on the Week 11 slate can be found in Buffalo as the Bills will host the Colts. Both of these teams are fighting for playoff positioning as Buffalo clings to its lead in the AFC East, while Indy is looking to stay alive behind Tennessee. In Week 10, the Bills had no problem handling the Jets and were able to bounce back nicely following that surprising loss to the Jaguars. Speaking of Jacksonville, Indy edged out a win over Urban Meyer’s team, but not enough to cover the double-digit spread. Following an ATS loss, the Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four, so they’ll be looking to keep that streak alive as they head up to Buffalo. 

Lions (0-8-1) at Browns (5-5)

Opening line: Browns -10

This line was trending towards the Browns as of Sunday morning as it ticked up a half-point to -10.5, but has since dropped to Browns -9.5 in the aftermath of Week 10. Detroit avoided a loss for the first time this season with its tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers, while Cleveland was blown out in its trip up to Foxborough against the Patriots. Not only did the outcome of these games possibly force the line to shift, but Baker Mayfield did suffer an injury in the midst of Week 10. While it doesn’t appear serious enough to keep him out of this matchup with the Lions, it’ll be worth monitoring throughout the week. Despite not having a win on the year, Detroit is 5-4 ATS. 

49ers (3-5) at Jaguars (2-7)

Opening line: 49ers -5.5

This line likely won’t see any significant movement until after the 49ers matchup with the Rams on Monday night. While Jacksonville wasn’t able to win its second-straight game after upsetting the Bills in Week 9, they were able to keep it close and cover the double-digit spread against the Colts. That moves them to 4-5 ATS on the season. In their last five games against teams with a losing record, the Jaguars have been able to keep the game close, going 4-1 ATS. 

Texans (1-8) at Titans (8-2)

Opening line: Titans -11

This line dipped a point to Titans -10 coming out of Sunday, but Tennessee is still looked at as a heavy favorite as they host Houston, who is coming off a Week 10 bye. Tyrod Taylor will be the starting QB for the Texans in this matchup after he returned off IR back in Week 9 in a loss to the Dolphins where he threw three picks. Meanwhile, the Titans remain as the No. 1 seed in the AC at 8-2, but continue to lose skill position players after placing Julio Jones on IR over the weekend. Despite that, they’ve been able to go 5-1 ATS over their last six, which matches up well against a Texans squad that is 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. 

Opening line: Packers -1.5

The Packers have since moved up to a 2.5-point favorite over the Vikings leading up to this AFC North matchup. Green Bay was able to shut out the Seattle Seahawks as Aaron Rodgers made his return to action following his stint on the COVID list. While the Packers will have their quarterback for this game, running back Aaron Jones suffered a knee injury that likely forces him out of the next game or so. As for Minnesota, they were able to go on the road and earn a seven-point win over the Chargers where Justin Jefferson exploded for 143 yards receiving. The Packers are an NFL-best 9-1 ATS this season, but Minnesota has also been solid ATS as well owning a 5-4 mark. That said, the Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games, which sets Green Bay up nicely to continue their strong pace.  

Ravens (6-3) at Bears (3-6)

Opening line: Ravens -6.5

Both of these clubs will be entering this matchup after getting some extended rest. Chicago enjoyed a bye in Week 10, while Baltimore played on Thursday night. The Ravens are looking to rebound after a surprisingly flat performance against the Dolphins where they were largely held to just three points for the bulk of the contest. Despite that loss, they are still a 6.5-point road favorite, but that hasn’t been too favorable for them as of late. Baltimore is 1-6 in its last seven as a favorite and is 0-4 ATS against teams with a losing record. 

Opening line: Pick

This stood as a pick’em, but has since moved to the Bengals being a 1-point road favorite in the aftermath of Las Vegas’ blowout loss to the Chiefs on Sunday night. Cincy was on the bye in Week 10, so they’ll have some extended rest on their side as they look to rebound from a rough stretch after starting the year 5-2. The Bengals were losers of two-straight entering the bye in games against the Jets and Browns. Both of these teams are 4-5 ATS on the season, but the Raiders have been really slumping with a 2-5 ATS record over their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a loss. 

Cardinals (8-2) at Seahawks (3-6)

Opening line: Seattle -1

The Cardinals are now a 2-point favorite in this matchup, but it’s probably smart to wait until we get official word on the statuses of both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins before placing a wager on this game. With Arizona on the bye in Week 12, it’ll be interesting to see if the club elects to hold Murray out for this game to further rest. Meanwhile, Seattle welcomed back Russell Wilson on Sunday, but the quarterback was unable to help the offense put points on the board as they were shut out by the Packers at Lambeau Field. Entering Week 11, Arizona is 7-3 ATS (tied for third-best in the NFL) while Seattle stands at 5-4 ATS. 

Cowboys (7-2) at Chiefs (6-4)

Opening line: Chiefs -2.5

This game was briefly moved to a pick’em, but has since gone back into the direction of the Chiefs, who are now a 1.5-point favorite. Kansas City finally looked like its old self on Sunday night against the Raiders as they dropped 41 points while Patrick Mahomes passed for 406 yards. Of course, K.C. wasn’t the only team piling up the points as Dallas put together a blowout for themselves in Week 10 as they put up 43 against the Falcons. The Cowboys have been one of the better teams to bet on this season as they own an 8-1 ATS record, while the Chiefs are 3-7 in that category. However, if Mahomes and company have flipped the switch, that record could begin to improve dramatically. 

Steelers (5-3-1) at Chargers (5-4)

Opening line: Chargers -3.5

The Steelers and Chargers will finish up next Sunday’s action as they’ll meet at SoFi Stadium for a prime-time head-to-head. Each of these teams are looking to stay within the playoff picture in the AFC and hope to bounce back from so-so showings in Week 10. Pittsburgh tied the Lions, while the Chargers fell to the Vikings at home. This season, the Steelers have been one of the worst bets in the NFL as they own a 3-6 ATS mark. Meanwhile, the Chargers have gone 4-1 ATS following a straight-up loss this season, so that could trend favorably for them in this matchup. 

Giants (3-6) at Buccaneers (6-3), Monday

Opening line: Buccaneers -12.5

The Bucs have dipped to an 11.5-point favorite against the Giants for Week 11, which is still a big number especially considering their no-show on Sunday against Washington. Tampa Bay has only been able to cover 33.3% of its games this season, while New York has been a respectable 5-4 ATS. While the Buccaneers have struggled against the spread this season, they have played well at Raymond James Stadium. The club is 8-1 ATS in their last eight home games and is 5-1 ATS in their last six as a home favorite.  

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