Bills vs. Patriots odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, NFL predictions from top model

The New England Patriots (6-5) will host the Buffalo Bills (8-3) in a primetime contest on Thursday Night Football. This game is crucial in the divisional race, with each team in the AFC East separated by only two games. Both clubs played on Thanksgiving, but had different outcomes. Buffalo topped the Detroit Lions 28-25, while the Patriots lost to Minnesota Vikings 33-26. Both teams failed to cover the spread.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is favored by four points in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under is 43.5. Before making any Patriots vs. Bills picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 155-110 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Patriots and just locked in its picks and NFL TNF Week 13 predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Bills: 

  • Bills vs. Patriots spread: Buffalo -4
  • Bills vs. Patriots over/under: 43.5 points
  • Bills vs. Patriots money line: Buffalo -205, New England +170
  • BUF: Bills are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games in December
  • NE: Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four versus AFC opponents
  • Bills vs. Patriots picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Why the Bills can cover

Receiver Stefon Diggs is one of the top wideouts in the NFL. He is supremely surehanded and makes tough catches routinely. The two-time Pro Bowl selection shows excellent coordination and focus when tracking the ball downfield. The 28-year-old is second in the league in receptions (84), third in receiving yards (1,110) and third in receiving touchdowns (nine).

Gabe Davis lines up opposite Diggs and forms an exciting combo. Davis is a physical receiver who wins downfield with strong body adjustments and reliable hands. The UCF product has long speed and can break away from defenders in open space. The 23-year-old has reeled in 33 receptions for 650 yards and five scores. See which team to pick here.

Why the Patriots can cover

Bill Belichick will have his team ready to roll in this divisional contest. New England has a strong defense that plays extremely fast and physically. This unit is ranked fourth in total defense (307.8) and ninth in both pass defense (198.5) and run defense (109.3).

Linebacker Matt Judon is having a monster campaign. Judon has become a consistent threat screaming off the edge with outstanding instincts as a pass-rusher. The three-time Pro Bowl selection is explosive off the snap and is solid against the run. The 30-year-old is leading the league in sacks (13) along with 11 TFLs. Judon continues to dominate for the Patriots and will be hungry in this primetime affair. See which team to pick here.

How to make Bills vs. Patriots picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the point total. In fact, it’s calling for 45 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only get the model’s TNF picks at SportsLine

So who wins Patriots vs. Bills on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out.

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