Bills vs. Patriots odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, NFL predictions from computer model

A primetime contest on Thursday Night Football features the New England Patriots (6-5) hosting the Buffalo Bills (8-3). Both clubs suited up on Thanksgiving and will play on Thursday night for the second straight week. Buffalo knocked off the Detroit Lions, 28-25, last week, while New England lost to the Minnesota Vikings, 33-26. The Bills are currently second in the division, while the Patriots sit in last place. This contest has playoff implications for both teams in the tightly-packed AFC playoff picture.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is favored by 3.5 points in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under is 43.5. Before making any Patriots vs. Bills picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 155-110 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Patriots and just locked in its picks and NFL TNF Week 13 predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Bills: 

  • Bills vs. Patriots spread: Buffalo -3.5
  • Bills vs. Patriots over/under: 43.5 points
  • Bills vs. Patriots money line: Buffalo -190, New England +160
  • BUF: Bills are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games in December
  • NE: Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four versus AFC opponents
  • Bills vs. Patriots picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Why the Bills can cover

Quarterback Josh Allen will give the Patriots’ defense fits due to his absurd athleticism and pin-point accuracy. Allen has 1,511 passing yards with 11 passing touchdowns and a passer rating of 82.7 against New England over seven career games. The Wyoming product also threw for 300-plus yards with three-plus passing scores in two matchups last year. In the divisional win over New England, Allen tossed 314 yards for three passing scores and a passer rating of 104.4.

Receiver Stefon Diggs has carved the Patriots since joining Buffalo in 2020. Diggs is a savvy route-runner who can eat at each level on the field. The Maryland product has 31 catches for 422 yards and scored four touchdowns in five career games against New England. His best performance came in Dec. 2020, where he hauled in nine passes for 145 yards and three touchdowns. See which team to pick here.

Why the Patriots can cover

Quarterback Mac Jones is an accurate passer who can move the sticks and take what the defense gives him. Jones wins with the consistent ability to keep throws on rhythm. The Alabama product is also able to push the ball downfield when needed and showcased that last week. In the loss to the Vikings, Jones went 28-of-39 for a season-high 382 yards and two scores. He also had a season-best 9.8 yards per pass attempt.

New England had five players with over 60 receiving yards in last week’s contest. Receiver Devante Parker led the way with four catches for 80 yards and made several contested grabs. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson continues to be an outlet in the passing game. Stevenson racked up nine receptions with 76 yards and knows how to make the first defender miss. See which team to pick here.

How to make Bills vs. Patriots picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the point total. In fact, it’s calling for 45 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only get the model’s TNF picks at SportsLine

So who wins Patriots vs. Bills on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out.

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