Bills vs. Patriots odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, NFL predictions from advanced model

The Week 13 edition of Thursday Night Football features the New England Patriots (6-5) hosting the Buffalo Bills (8-3). The divisional affair will be the first of two games between these teams. Buffalo has won four of the last five meetings, including two straight wins. In the Wild Card Round of the playoffs last year, the Bills stomped the Patriots, 47-17. Both teams failed to cover the spread last week.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is favored by 3.5 points in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under is 43.5. Before making any Patriots vs. Bills picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 155-110 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Patriots and just locked in its picks and NFL TNF Week 13 predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Bills: 

  • Bills vs. Patriots spread: Buffalo -3.5
  • Bills vs. Patriots over/under: 43.5 points
  • Bills vs. Patriots money line: Buffalo -190, New England +160
  • BUF: Bills are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games in December
  • NE: Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four versus AFC opponents
  • Bills vs. Patriots picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Why the Bills can cover

Receiver Stefon Diggs is one of the top wideouts in the NFL. He is supremely surehanded and makes tough catches routinely. The two-time Pro Bowl selection shows excellent coordination and focus when tracking the ball downfield. The 28-year-old is second in the league in receptions (84), third in receiving yards (1,110) and third in receiving touchdowns (nine).

Gabe Davis lines up opposite Diggs and forms an exciting combo. Davis is a physical receiver who wins downfield with strong body adjustments and reliable hands. The UCF product has long speed and can break away from defenders in open space. The 23-year-old has reeled in 33 receptions for 650 yards and five scores. See which team to pick here.

Why the Patriots can cover

Running back Rhamondre Stevenson is having a stellar campaign thus far. Stevenson has been an all-around weapon who piles up yards from scrimmage. The Oklahoma product has plenty of size and shows strong contact balance. The 24-year-old can also make plays in the passing game. In fact, Stevenson is leading the team with 151 carries for 680 yards and four touchdowns. Additionally, he’s logged 359 receiving yards and another three scores.

Quarterback Mac Jones leads the charge for the offense. Jones showcases a strong understanding of getting the ball out early and keeping the offense in rhythm. The Alabama product has plenty of accuracy and can attack each level on the field. Jones is completing 69% of his passes for 1,768 yards and six passing scores. See which team to pick here.

How to make Bills vs. Patriots picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the point total. In fact, it’s calling for 45 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only get the model’s TNF picks at SportsLine

So who wins Patriots vs. Bills on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out.

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